On the surface, Rocks, Paper, Scissors (RPS) is among the simplest games. Each player chooses from among only three options, with clear (and even) rules about how different options win, lose, or tie.
However, this simplicity doesn’t make the game easy to win. To determine the best approach, you need to think not only about how an opponent is likely to play, but also about how the opponent is going to think you’re going to think they’re going to play (and what adjustments they might make). The flexibility of choice proves to be a fertile ground for spiraling complexity. The entries to an online RPS contest provide a view of the shape this can take. The first place entry employs 27 different predictors designed to identify historical similarities and capture the opponent’s selection strategy, and the second place entry utilizes a complex, layered approach of predictors and meta-predictors to choose the optimal next move.
It’s clear lots of time and effort went into crafting these strategies, and based on the win rates it seems they’re effective. RPS is a zero-sum game, so there must also have been many losing strategies in the competition whose predictions were dominated by these more complex strategies.
Interestingly, there’s a simple strategy which these complex approaches can’t hope to beat – playing randomly. The beauty of random play is that it doesn’t matter what strategy your opponent picks. They can leverage 27 different predictors, pick “rock” every time, or also play randomly, and regardless you’ll get the same result of a 50% win rate. Choosing to play randomly is akin to opting out of the complex, difficult game of competitive strategy and returning both players to a simple game of chance.
A favorite short story of mine, You Are Special, involves opting out of a different type of game. In it, a population of wooden people (crafted by a woodworker, Eli) spend each day plastering stickers on each other. Those who are attractive or talented are awarded stars, while those who are less impressive receive dots. The main character in the story, Punchinello, has received lots of dots, to the point where others will give him a dot simply because of how many he already has. Punchinello, understandably, is quite distressed by this, and thinks himself a bad wooden person. One day he meets another wooden person with no stickers of any kind. This isn’t for lack of trying; it’s simply that the stickers placed on her fall right off because she doesn’t care about them. In the story, it turns out that this lack of care is because she has a strong relationship with the woodworker, Eli (who represents God), but regardless of reason the important part is the fact that she “opts out” of the game.
Life presents us with myriad opportunities to view the world through a competitive lens, and we often lack full control over whether to play. Just as we can’t actually make random moves in RPS (try coming up with a stream of random numbers), most of us cannot easily abstain completely from caring about what others think or the relative quality of our lives. However, an awareness of these decisions, and of the fact that they are, at their core, optional, makes it easier to opt out when needed. In embracing this choice, we allow ourselves the freedom to redefine success on our own terms – or even (like playing randomly or ignoring the dots and stars) by no terms at all.