Progress

Examining Evolution as an Upper Bound for AGI Timelines

April 24, 2022

With the massive degree of progress in AI over the last decade or so, it’s natural to wonder about its future – particularly the timeline to achieving human (and superhuman) levels of general intelligence. Ajeya Cotra, a senior researcher at Open Philanthropy, recently (in 2020) put together a comprehensive report seeking to answer this question …

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Examining AGI Timelines

February 9, 2022

During a recent email exchange, a reader of the blog brought up the question of technology / AI timelines and what progress in that domain might look like. His question struck a chord, reminding me of the uneasy feeling I often get when reading the optimistic predictions of others (including futurist Ray Kurzweil and philosopher …

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